Israeli study: in the British variant, serious cases of Covid swell


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A study by Israel’s largest health maintenance organization (HMO), Clalit Health Services, found that the British variant of Covid-19 causes a wave in more serious cases than the original virus.

Clalit Health Services examined 50,000 unvaccinated individuals who tested positive for Covid-19 during January and February, when the British variant was the dominant strain of the virus in Israel. Researchers compared them to 60,000 unvaccinated people in Israel who were diagnosed with Covid-19 in previous waves, before there was a mutation that was first identified in Britain.

According to the data, before the UK variant of Covid-19, there was a 1% chance that people aged 30-50 would be seriously ill, 3.7% for those aged 50 to 60 and 14.5% for those over 60 . But in January and February in Israel, when the British variant dominated, there was a 1.3% probability that people aged 30-50 would become seriously ill, 5.5% for those aged 50 to 60 and 19% for those older than 60 years.

Clalit said, “During January and February in the third lock and at the height of Israel’s vaccination introduction, we saw an unexplained phenomenon. Forecasts predicted an immediate and large decline in the number of new seriously ill patients with Covid every day. In practice, despite high rates of people older than The 60 years who received the first dose of the vaccine, and then even the second dose, the decline in the total number of seriously ill patients was moderate. “

During this period, the variant first identified in Britain became dominant in Israel. This strain was first seen in Israel in late December, and in early February it has already caused, according to estimates by the Ministry of Health, most infections in Israel. Several initial reports in England have shown that this variant could cause both more serious diseases and significantly more deaths, although there was no data from Israel on this possible phenomenon. “

Director of the Clalit Research Institute, prof. Ran Balicer said: “Our data provide a possible explanation for why in the first weeks of 2021 we did not record a sharp decline as expected in the number of new serious daily cases, despite the extent of the urge to vaccinate and the huge efficacy of vaccinations. conducted by Clalit and published this morning in the New England Journal of Medicine. “

He added, “According to the results we have, some of the overall decline in those all age groups who are seriously ill after vaccination was seen later and in a more limited way than expected, due to a sharp and simultaneous increase in serious infection among those unvaccinated people in all age groups that are infected – an increase of 70% over the period of a month earlier.

“The results of the study tell us that since the beginning of 2021, the clinical characteristics of Covid morbidity have changed and that the risk of serious Covid has increased significantly among the unvaccinated population, and from here it can be estimated that the British variant is not only more contagious but also more dangerous. coincide with British reports of increased aggression of the new strain. “

Posted by Globes, business news in Israel – en.globes.co.il – February 26, 2021

© Copyright Globes Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2021


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